Wisconsin, Tennessee, Texas A&M Rise, Michigan State, Florida Fall; The College Football Minefield Sept. 25

Last week, we presented a case that the following the teams were alive and well in the College Football Playoff race:

SEC

Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia

Big Ten

Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State

ACC

Louisville, Clemson

PAC-12

Stanford, Washington, Utah

Big 12

Baylor

American

Houston

The College Football regular season is similar to a minefield, where one false step can eliminate all hope of reaching the playoff.

Keeping all of this in mind, here are the teams that “stepped on a landmine” on Saturday, Sept. 24.

Who Stepped on a Landmine?

Michigan State: The Spartans were dominated by Wisconsin 30-6 at home. Michigan State falls to 2-1, will most certainly fall out of the top ten, and still has to play both Michigan and Ohio State later on in the season. Unless the Spartans are perfect the rest of the way and upset those two juggernauts, they’ll be watching the playoff from home.

LSU: The Tigers fell to 2-2 with a tough loss on the road against Auburn. LSU might fall from out of the top 25 with this loss and even a perfect season the rest of the way would not be enough to give them a strong chance of reaching the playoff.

Florida: The season is not over for Florida, who blew a 21-3 halftime lead and was dominated in the second half on the road in Tennessee. Tennessee is the only undefeated team left in the SEC East, but if the Volunteers lose a couple games, Florida could still win the division and reach the SEC Championship.

Georgia: Much like Florida, the loss to Ole Miss is not a death blow, but in a conference with little margin for error, the Bulldogs have an uphill battle. It wasn’t just the fact that Georgia lost, but they were blown out 45-14. That #12 ranking could fall quite a bit in the next AP Poll.

Arkansas: Not that the Razorbacks had a great chance to begin with, but the Aggies ended that possibility before it even began, as it was a 17-17 game before Texas A&M scored 21 straight points and won 45-24.

UCLA: The Bruins may have been able to overcome that Week 1 loss to Texas with a convincing win over Stanford, but they couldn’t close the deal and it appears their slim window of salvaging the season closed, too.

Who Helped Their Chances?

Wisconsin: Anyone who thought that their first win against LSU had more to do with the poor performance of the Tigers was proven wrong when the Badgers stomped on the Spartans in East Lansing. Wisconsin’s offense was not particularly impressive, but this defense makes the Badgers a legitimate contender in the playoff race.

They still face Michigan and Ohio State in their next two games (fortunately there’s a bye week before the OSU game) and will likely face one of those two teams a second time if they reach the Big Ten Conference Championship, but it’s the title game that will matter most. If Wisconsin can at least split the two games between the Buckeyes and Wolverines and win the Big Ten Championship, they should be in the playoff. Easier said than done.

Tennessee: At halftime, it looked like the season was over. The Volunteers were down 21-3. but Tennessee regrouped and dominated in the second half. They are now the team to beat in the SEC East. The only problem is they face Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama in the next three weeks.

Whatever boost in rankings the Volunteers receive from this win, there’s a good chance that three weeks from now, they’ll fall more than a few spots. If Tennessee can get through those three games with only one loss, they’re in a great spot to win the SEC East.

Utah: Don’t look now, but Utah has a chance to win the PAC-12. The Utes defeated USC 31-27 on Friday night and improve to 4-0 on the season. They’re still the underdogs compared to Stanford and Washington, but they host the Huskies in the regular season and do not play Stanford.

If Utah can win the PAC-12 South, they might face Stanford or play a rematch against Washington  in the PAC-12 Championship. It’s possible for the PAC-12 champion to reach the playoff with one total loss on the season, but running the table would remove all doubt.

Texas A&M: Although the Aggies are still heavy underdogs compared to Alabama, they are clearly the second-best team in the SEC West. The Aggies have a tough three-game stretch coming up, as they’ll face South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama. Before we even consider the possibility of the Aggies upsetting Bama (on the road), let’s see them get out to a 6-0 start heading into their bye week.

Who Held Their Ground?

Alabama, Oho State (bye week), Louisville, Michigan, Clemson, Houston, Stanford, Washington, Baylor

PLAYOFF PICTURE AS OF SEPT. 24

SEC

Favorite: Alabama

Long Shots: Tennessee, Texas A&M

Big Ten

Favorites: Ohio State or Michigan

Long Shots: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska

ACC

Favorites: Louisville or Clemson

Long Shots: Florida State, Miami, Wake Forest

PAC-12 

Favorites: Stanford or Washington

Long Shots: Utah, Arizona State

Big 12

Favorite: Baylor

Long Shots: TCU, West Virginia

American 

Houston

Next week will be sure to feature several more landmines going off, as Michigan hosts Wisconsin, Washington hosts Stanford, and Clemson hosts Louisville.

We’ll have much more to come leading up to those pivotal matchups.

In closing, here is my current top ten, along with predictions for who will make the College Football Playoff, as of Sept. 25.

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Louisville
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Washington
7. Stanford
8. Wisconsin
9. Houston
10. Texas A&M

Playoff Picks

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Clemson

4. Washington