While point spreads and moneylines are the most popular bets in the US, Over/Under betting lines can be much more exciting and are quickly growing in popularity. The best thing about these types of bets is that they draw you away from the worry of predicting the winner to a whole new dimension of betting, where you only focus on the game dynamics.
So how does it all work? We’ll dissect everything about these NBA betting lines to help you place informed bets.
What are Over/Under Lines?
Over/Under lines are a type of betting that disregards the winning aspect of a game and focuses only on the total number of points scored. What you bet on is simply the total number of points you think will be scored by both teams, hence the name “totals.”
Essentially, the sportsbook usually picks a set number of points. For example, in a game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors, you can have an Over/Under Line at 215.5 points. When placing a bet, you can wager on the actual points scored being more than the set line (over) or less (under).
As there’s nothing like a clear underdog in this type of bet, the odds are usually more attractive. However, most bookmakers offer multiple Over/Under Lines for the same game, so you can choose the one you feel more comfortable with.
What Influences Over/Under Lines?
Before you can be successful at betting on totals, you need to understand the various factors that influence these lines.
Team Statistics and Performance
The main factor that influences Over/Under lines is the profile of the two teams and how they’ve been performing. This starts with recent games and then encompasses the entire season. Look at things such as offensive efficiency, defensive prowess, pace of play, and the scoring trend. Beyond that, ensure you compare how the two teams match up. How many points have been scored in previous head-to-head matches? This can give you an idea of what to expect.
Player Injuries and Matchups
The absence of key players usually has a big impact on how a team plays, and this influences its scoring potential. When doing your research, analyze how a team has performed with and without various key players. Then, are they all available?
Besides that, look at the matchups between the two teams. If there are some defensive mismatches, this can have a great influence on the number of points scored. Ensure that you stay updated with the latest player availability news and adjust your bets accordingly.
Game Context and Circumstances
Off-the-game factors such as playoff implications and historical rivalries are another consideration, as they can have a huge effect on the Over/Under lines. If the game involves high stakes, a team can go all out and have the heightened intensity result in high scores.
Betting Trends and Market Dynamics
As with all other markets, the betting trends and market sentiment play a key role in influencing the totals lines. Bookmakers usually monitor betting activities and public sentiment continuously, and the lines are adjusted to ensure an even spread on all sides of a bet.
How to Improve your Chances when Betting on NBA Totals
The best starting point in sports betting is doing in-depth research. Dive deep into the team statistics, player and team matchups, recent performances, and historical data. From there, you need to stay updated to get the latest news regarding player availability or the game in general. Look at what other bettors think, then monitor the line movements, as this will allow you to find more value.
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