UFC 206 Preview and Predictions – McKee Picks

TORONTO, Canada

It has been a wild few weeks for the UFC and it’s matchmakers as once again injuries and failed weight cuts have made for one strange pay per view this Saturday night.  The main event has changed several times already as has most of the undercard.

To Recap before I make my picks, here is just a tiny bit of the craziness.

A Light Heavyweight Championship rematch between the current champion Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson was originally expected to headline the event.  This was a highly-anticipated rematch of their UFC 187 match in May 2015 in which Cormier won the Jon Jones vacated championship.

However on November 25, Cormier pulled out due to injury and the bout was canceled.  The UFC needed to act fast and did by having Conor McGregor stripped of the Featherweight title and scheduling a featherweight bout between Max Holloway and former UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis was shifted to the headlining spot for the “interim featherweight title.”

The attempt to save the main event promptly failed, as earlier today Anthony Pettis missed weight, and now, the fight is no longer a title fight for both men. Oddly enough in this type of situation, only Holloway now has the chance to win the belt.  In a move hard to explain, only he is able to win the belt Saturday night, and even if Pettis wins, it won’t matter as he is no longer title eligible.

Perhaps next to the main event taking two major hits, one of the biggest misses on the card that a lot of fans were looking forward to on UFC 205 that got canceled, and now UFC 206 was a middleweight bout between Tim Kennedy and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans making his middleweight debut.

The long awaited debut of Evans at middleweight would not happen at 205 when Evans was pulled from the fight days before the event after an undisclosed irregularity was found during his pre-fight medical exam.  It was then hoped that the match would take place and was booked for UFC 206, once again it wouldn’t happen as Evans once again was unable to obtain medical clearance to compete on the card and was pulled from the bout on November 21.

The reason given was an irregularity in his pre-fight MRI was responsible for both removals and he is expected to undergo an additional screening with an neurologist to prove he is healthy enough to fight, before possibly returning to the cage in January or February, according to his manager.  We hope for not only the fighter, but also the man, that Rashad Evans is truly healthy enough and we haven’t seen the end of a great career far too early.

So, even with fighters dropping like flies, and what seems to be on going chaos from Toronto, Ontario Canada where this fight will be taking place, there are still four fights that stand out, let’s take a look and break them down shall we?

Tim Kennedy vs Kevin Gastelum

Ironically enough Gastelum, the replacement for Rashad Evans, is only on this card as a product of missing his welterweight weight cut for UFC 205 against Donald Cerrone.  He is a product of right place at the right time.

Kevin Gastelum has been up and down since winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 17 in April 2013 over Uriah Hall.  Since then he has gone 6-2 with several impressive wins over Johny Hendricks, Rick Story, Jake Ellenberger and Nate Marquardt.  However, he also has several missed weights on his record along with defeats to Tyron Woodley and Nail Magny.  This will be his first UFC fight at middleweight as Dana White has barred him from competing at Welterweight ever again in the UFC.

He won’t have an easy debut match against the Extreme Challenge Middleweight Tournament winner and several time Strike Force Middleweight Championship contender Tim Kennedy.  He is no stranger to the big fight, although he doesn’t seem to win them.  Kennedy has big fights on his record, but they came at the expense of losses to Jason Miller, Ronaldo Souza, Luke Rockhold and current number one contender Yoel Romero.

He does have some impressive wins on his record however, against men the likes of current Middleweight Champion Michael Bisping, former UFC Welterweight Champion Robbie Lawler and Dante Rivera.

With that being said, I feel Kennedy adds another big name to his list of surprise wins with a solid three round decision victory over Kevin Gastelum.

PICK – KENNEDY BY DECISION

 

Cub Swanson vs Doo Ho Choi

Swanson had been on a giant roll and on the cusp of a title shot after six straight UFC wins, until a 2014 submission loss to Frankie Edgar set him back.  Since, then he has rebounded to go 2-1 but will need a big win over Choi to get people talking about him again.

Swanson will not take the 15-1 Choi lightly, but I firmly believe Swanson is the real deal and will stay on the right track with a convincing victory.

PICK – SWANSON BY 2^ND ROUND KNOCKOUT

 

Donald Cerrone vs Matt Brown

They have combined for 51 MMA wins, and are the two most active fighters in the UFC with constant fights in several weight classes.

They are also two men headed in different directions as of late.  Cerrone has won 12 of his last 14 fights with a 8 fight win streak mixed in.  On top of that, Cerrone is currently on a 3 fight win streak since debuting at Welterweight.  His only two losses are against the former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafeal dos Anjos.

Matt Brown has not been so lucky as of late and has actually lost 4 of his last 5 bouts.  He is still deadly with his hands and absolutely fearless each time out.  Look for both of these men to put on a classic.

PICK – DONALD CERRONE OVER MATT BROWN VIA SPLIT DECISION IN THE FIGHT OF THE NIGHT!

Max Holloway vs Anthony Pettis ( Only Holloway can win the Featherweight Interim Belt)

Not exactly sure how Pettis got a title shot with only one win at Featherweight, and only one fight.  Clearly he could have cashed in with the right time at right place gimmick, but he simply couldn’t make weight.  That makes me wonder if his heart will even be in this fight now.

It wasn’t too long ago that he was seen as one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world.  After decision losses to Rafeal dos Anjos for his Lightweight Championship, Eddie Alvarez and then Edson Barboza he switched to Featherweight in an attempt to jumpstart his career.

His opponent Max Holloway is now in line to take advantage of the biggest opportunity of his career.  This is one he may never see again if he loses.  Since his loss to Conor McGregor in the summer of 2013, he has rattled off 9 straight wins against some very impressive competition.  He has toppled men such as Cole Miller, Cub Swanson, Ricardo Lamas Charles Oliveria  and Jeremy Stephens.  He will add another one to his resume along with some gold.

PICK – Holloway by split decision.