Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX
12/31 8 PM
Michigan State (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)
Alabama
Confidence: 36
Game two of the playoffs pit the two against the three. This one seems to be a mismatch with Alabama being 9.5 point favorites. Michigan State has won four games over top twelve teams this season beating Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa. None of these wins were really dominant, with all coming by less than four points and that was the miracle finish over Michigan to get them into the playoff. The Spartans had high expectations behind QB Connor Cook, but he really hasn’t flashed like most expected, going for 2921 yards and 24 TDs to 5 INTs. The main matchup to watch is the front seven for both of these defenses. Alabama has a lot of talent up front that can make things difficult. Michigan State’s seventh ranked run defense has a much harder task in stopping Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Henry has 1986 rushing yards and 23 TDs this season and that’s with playing in the SEC. He has four games over 200 yards but really shined down the line getting a combined 100 touches the last two games for 460 yards. Alabama’s resume might be the only team that matches Michigan State. They have six wins over ranked opponents including three in the top ten. Alabama in the end is the more talented of the two and moves on.
Alabama 27 Michigan State 13
Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL
1/1 12 PM
Northwestern (10-2) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
Tennessee
Confidence: 20
Northwestern has some good wins especially early beating Stanford week one. However the losses are bad. 38-0 to Michigan and 40-10 to Iowa is hard to take. Northwestern is definitely a defensive minded team allowing only 16 points per game. They don’t score a lot and have a hard time passing. The QBs have combined to throw a little over 1600 yards and 9 INTs to 8 TDs which is horrendous. Playing a SEC defense will do them no favors. It’s hard to argue against Tennessee’s losses as well that come from Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama. The Volunteers are also a better team on defense than offense but they are more efficient offensively than Northwestern.
Tennessee 20 Northwestern 10
Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL
1/1 1 PM
Michigan (9-3) vs. Florida (10-3)
Michigan
Confidence: 19
Raise your hand if you thought Michigan and Florida would both be at this point in their coaches first season. That’s right nobody. McElwain and Harbaugh both deserve to be Coach of the Year nominees for the season these teams have had. One thing is both offenses struggle and they have two of the best defenses in the country. Vegas have this as the lowest scoring game with the over/under being 41 points. Michigan has the third best pass defense and during one stretch of the year, pitched three straight shutouts including two of them coming against ranked teams in BYU and Northwestern. Florida looked to go much farther this year until the suspension of freshman QB Will Grier for PEDs put a halt in their step. Combine that with their kicking woes where they had to have a public tryout to attempt to find a kicker and the points scored have plummeted. Florida’s defense is top twenty against the pass and run and top ten in points allowed. They are fourth in the country with 40 sacks. The star of the defense is CB Vernon Hargreaves. He may not have the best size, but has the cover skills to be a top ten pick. This is the only game where a SEC team is an underdog and I almost agree with that because I don’t like Auburn either.
Michigan 24 Florida 21
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