Tonight, there is a new biggest game in Cleveland Cavalier Franchise history. The Cavs have a chance to force a game seven where, as the saying goes, anything can happen. Cleveland’s game five win left the Cleveland fans with much excitement, mainly about the fact that their team was still alive, but there are caveats to this new found hope as well.
Good news: LeBron and Kyrie Irving reached an absolutely ridiculous level of basketball in game 5: Seriously, these dudes were other worldly. It’s been a few years since we’ve LeBron pull off a performance like that efficiently, and Irving put on perhaps the greatest display of difficult shot making we have ever seen in the Finals. Every time I watch the replay of Kyrie’s spinning, turn around bank shot over Klay Thompson, I still don’t think it’s going in.
Bad news: Neither will most likely be able to duplicate their astonishing performance: It cannot be stressed enough how important Draymond Green is to the Golden State Warriors, and game 5 was material proof. LeBron was able to get freight train-y with it without Draymond on the floor to not only be able to initiate Golden State’s switch everything defense in their small lineups, but act as the rim protector in those same lineups. Also, LeBron has taken a slight step back. He is no longer at the peak of his prime. He is still awesome, but it’s no coincidence that he had his heroic game with the key to Golden State’s defense in a a baseball stadium next door. Also, if Kyrie got the same exact looks he got in game five for 10 more games, he could maybe repeat that performance once or twice. It’s not a shot at Kyrie, it’s a credit to how incredible his shot making was.
Good news: Andrew Bogut is gone for the rest of the series: He is a main communicator on defense, and Golden State’s most trusted option when they have to actually play a center. He can protect the rim, as he was when he got hurt in game four, and he is a very good passer. The Warriors know other teams will not guard him at the top of the key, and they use this to their advantage by having stand out there and pick out a Warrior coming off a screen (Bogut is the best screener on GSW, too). The Warriors are losing something by losing Bogut. Also, this most likely means more Anderson Varejao/James Michael McAdoo minutes, because apparently Festus Ezeli has already signed a contract with another team or something (seriously, Steve Kerr, what did this guy do to you?).
Bad News: While Bogut is a solid player, the Warriors might actually prosper without him: First of all, Bogut is a loss. But, he is a small loss. For starters, he has only averaged 12 minutes a game in this series. He basically plays the first five minutes or so of each half, and then Kerr goes small or with backup bigs the rest of the way. We all know the Warriors’ best lineup is with Green at center, and Bogut’s injury not only means more of it, but Golden State will probably start with it as well. In the playoffs, Golden State is four points better per 100 possessions with Green on the floor than with Bogut on the floor, per NBA.com. Bogut is a main communicator on defense, but so is Green. Green may slip slightly in rim protection, where Bogut excels. But, Green is still a good rim protector, and does about nine different things Bogut cannot. Heck, maybe the injury will finally force Steve Kerr into playing Ezeli some real minutes (but probably not). I’m beginning to think Ezeli made a play at one of Kerr’s daughters or something, this is truly unprecedented. Ezeli is easily the second best true center on the team, sometimes the first. He would start on like 20 other NBA teams. He has bad hands and isn’t always on the ball mentally, but he’s still much better than Varejao and McAdoo at his worst.
Good News: Game six at home: The Cavaliers have been a noticeably better team at home in these playoffs than on the road. They are worse in every general statistical category on the road except for, weirdly, free throw percentage. I’m not saying this is cause for concern. Every team is worse on the road. But, those numbers illustrate how big of a deal it is for this game six to be at Quicken Loans Arena. Plus, 9-0 Warrior runs (they happen, it’s inevitable) are a lot easier to deal with when you don’t have their fans screaming at you at the same time.
Bad News: What sunk the Cavs in game four at home could sink them again: Cleveland had control of the game for most of game four in Cleveland. Then, in the fourth quarter, the Cavaliers lost the game amid a series of iso plays that didn’t get the job done. This has been the knock on Cleveland (with Irving absorbing most of the scrutiny) for most of this series. Then game five happened, at it seemed like the iso-ball was a problem until it wasn’t. In Game five, Kyrie and Lebron scored or assisted on 87% of the teams points. The Cavs passed the ball just 217 times, 30 fewer than previous low for the Cavs in this series (which was, you guessed it, game four). My concern is that the Cavs didn’t learn anything from the debacle down the stretch in game four. Kyrie’s and Lebron’s game five performances may have been heroic, but they also may have given the Cavaliers a false belief that what they can continue to win games against the Warriors playing that style of basketball, which is just not true.
Overall, there are a lot of things coming out of game five that cannot be replicated tonight sheerly because of the weird circumstances surrounding it. Draymond didn’t play in game five, so the Warriors looked like a completely different team, illustrating his value. Kevin Love looked invisible out there, but that was partially because Kyrie and LeBron had it going so well, why would they give it up? Love scored two points, sure. But he only took five shots. That’s more a testament to him not getting enough touches to score, and five touches weren’t enough to get him in rhythm. Golden State shot 4-19 on three pointers that the Sport VU player tracking data classified as wide open (no one within six feet of shooter). This is also probably not going to be repeated.
All of these discrepancies only make game six that much more exciting/interesting. The law of averages may be broken again tonight, who knows. What we do know is the Warriors can win a championship tonight, and the Cavs are frothing at the mouth to prevent them from doing so. Awesome basketball will ensue.
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