Evaluation of MLB Pitching: Why is Shane Bieber Struggling Away From Progressive Field

Photo by Charles Murray

OVERVIEW

When evaluating MLB starters and relievers, it’s my view that their statistics away from home are an excellent indicator of their relative talents and abilities. Home stadiums are known as pitcher’s parks (Miami and San Francisco, for example) or hitters parks (Boston, Toronto, and Colorado). Also, some parks are blends of pitchers and hitter’s parks. Bullseye Field in Minneapolis is a pitcher’s park when the game time temperature is under 60 degrees, and a hitter’s park when the game time temperature is over 80 degrees. I suspect Flo Field in Cleveland is much the same way. The mixture of pitching in potentially 22 different stadiums allows for an evening-out of that effect.

 

Using this criterion, here are the top 5 starting staffs in MLB: BOLD IS EACH TEAM’S HOME ERA
1. Minnesota (2.39 ERA) 3.94 
2. Atlanta (2.95) 3.84

3. Texas (3.01) 4.30
4. Houston (3.32) 3.53
   5. Chicago Cubs (3.33) 3.07 

   Cleveland is 10th with a 3.80 ERA (4.40 at home)

The top 5 bullpens in MLB:

1. Atlanta (2.25) 4.71
2. Pittsburgh (2.57) 4.65
3. Seattle (2.63) 2.96
4. Chicago Cubs (2.66) 4.03
5. Los Angeles Angels (2.74) 4.81
Cleveland is 10th with a 3.48 ERA (2.81 at home); Minnesota is 16th with a 4.06 ERA (3.34 at home).

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STARTERS

It would stand to reason, therefore, that the top starting pitchers in MLB would have excellent records away from their home stadium. For this exercise, I’ll use quality starts since that seems to be the “gold standard” for starting pitching excellence. (Ties in QS are decided by ERA) Below are the top 10 starting pitchers: BOLD IS EACH PITCHER’S HOME ERA

1. Shane Bieber, Cleveland (5 QS; 2.73 ERA) (2 QS; 2.41 ERA)
2. Joe Ryan, Minnesota (5 QS; 2.03 ERA) (1 QS; 3.46 ERA)
3. Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis (3 QS; 0.46 ERA) (2 QS; 5.91 ERA)
4. Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco (3 QS; 0.87 ERA) (2 QS; 4.44 ERA)
5. Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs (3 QS; 1.47 ERA) (3 QS; 1.47 ERA)
6. Pablo Lopez, Minnesota (3 QS; 1.78 ERA) (1 QS; 6.62 ERA)
7. Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Tampa Bay (3 QS; 1.96 ERA) (3 QS; 1.57 ERA)
8. George Kirby, Seattle (3 QS; 2.14 ERA) (3 QS; 3.04 ERA)
9t. Vince Velasquez, Pittsburgh (3 QS; 2.45 ERA) (1 QS; 4.65 ERA)
9t. Nate Eovaldi, Texas (3 QS; 2.45 ERA) (1 QS; 4.26 ERA)

What I find most fascinating about this list is that for the 2 starters with 5 quality road starts (Bieber and Ryan), their teams have a combined 4-6 won-loss record when they pitch – Bieber 1-4; Ryan 3-2). In games pitched by other starters, Cleveland’s road record is 7-6; Minnesota’s road record, on the other hand is 6-8. So why does Cleveland have such a poor won-loss record away from Flo Field when Shane Bieber is starting?

One area to research is the score of the game when Bieber left the game and compare it to the score of the game when Ryan left his game. This tends to control for factors outside the control of the starting pitcher – the strength or weakness of the bullpens.

SHANE BIEBER
*March 30 at Seattle: Bieber pitched 6 innings of shutout baseball; score tied 0-0 after 6 innings; bullpen (Karinchak)gave up a 3-run HR (all ERs) in the bottom of the 8th inning.
—Hard to blame Bieber for this loss.

*April 4 at Oakland: Bieber pitched 6 innings, but gave up 3 runs, all earned (4.50 ERA). Still a quality start, by only by definition. The score was tied 3-3 after 6 innings. Karinchak pitched the bottom of the 9th in a tie game and gave up the walk-off hit.
— Considering how pathetic the Athletics are this year, this has to go down as a bad loss, but not blamable on Bieber.

*April 16 at Washington: Bieber again pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs, all earned (4.50 ERA). The score was 4-3 Guardians after 6 innings. However, the vaunted Cleveland bullpen gave up 4 ER in 2 IP (18.00 ERA).
— Washington is a better team than Oakland, but when a team is so reliant on its bullpen to close out games (because of the lack of offensive output), this has to be considered a bad loss, but not blamable on Bieber.

*April 28 at Boston: Bieber gets stretched out a bit, going 7 innings of 2-run (all earned) baseball (2.57 ERA). The score was 4-2 Cleveland after 7 innings. Considering the venue (Fenway Park), this might be one of Shane’s best performances. Also, the bullpen didn’t cough this one up – one of the bullpen’s better performances, as well.

*May 3 at Yankee Stadium: Bieber performs like the ace he is considered, going 8 innings of 2-run (all earned) baseball. (2.25 ERA). The score was 2-2 after 8 innings. Cleveland scored 1 run in the top of the 9th and brought in Emmanuel Clase to close it out. Unfortunately, even Clase is mortal, as he gave up the tying run in the bottom of the 9th. Trevor Stephan coughed up the walk-off loss in the bottom of the 10th.
–Looks like an instant classic game that someone had to lose. Again, it’s hard to hang this loss of Bieber.

 

Summary: In the 5 QS, Bieber left the game with the score tied 3 times and Cleveland ahead twice. In the 2 games he left with a lead, the bullpen held it once and coughed it up once. In the 3 games he left with the game tied,
the bullpen lost the game all 3 times, with Karinchak providing the super soaker full of lighter fluid and a torch.

 

JOE RYAN
*April 2 at Kansas City: Ryan pitched 6 innings of 1-run ball (earned – ERA 1.50). The score was 3-1 Minnesota after 6 innings. The Twins added on and won 7-4.
—Yes, the Royals are as putrid as the Athletics. On the other hand, Oakland’s ballpark is more pitcher-friendly than Kauffman Stadium. Bieber 3 ERs in 6 innings; Ryan 1 ER in 6 innings. You be the judge.

*April 13 at Yankee Stadium: This might have been the measuring stick for Bieber to emulate, as Ryan (with the help of a 9-run top of the 1st) provided 7 innings of 1-run ball (earned – ERA 1.29). Minnesota ended up hanging on for an 11-2 win.
—Apples to apples comparison, this writer gives the nod to Joe Ryan.

*April 19 at Boston: Ryan falls victim to the ballpark where ERAs go to die. Here Ryan couldn’t perform better than Bieber, going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs (all earned – 4.50 ERA). The score was 10-3 Minnesota when Ryan left the game. Minnesota’s bullpen held on for a 10-4 victory.
—Second apples to apples comparison, but this time the nod goes to Bieber.

*May 2 at Chicago White Sox: Ryan was spectacular, giving up 1 hit and 0 runs in 6 innings (ERA 0.00). Score was 1-0 Minnesota when he left the game. The White Sox won the game in 10 innings 3-2, with the untrustworthy Caleb Thielbar giving up the walk off.
—Like many of Bieber’s games, hard to blame Ryan for this loss.

*May 7 at Flo Field: Instant classic for pitching, as both Ryan and Cal Quantrill provided the fans with a free pitching clinic. Ryan was superb, going 6 innings of 2 run (both earned) ball (ERA 3.00). The score was 2-0 Cleveland when Ryan left the game.
—Pitching classic. Hard to blame Ryan for this loss.

Summary: Last week, Minnesota faced 2 teams (Chicago and Cleveland) that looked at their games as “must win” – if nothing else, to remind the Twins that they haven’t been crowned AL Central champions quite yet. Each team needed to win the Minnesota series, and they did. Ryan performed as expected, giving up 2 ERs in 12 innings of pitching (1.50 ERA) in his last 2 games. Minnesota’s bullpen is improved over last year (yes, even noted arsonist Emilio Pagan is pitching decently), but when facing teams motivated to beat you, 9 times out of 10 those teams will get the job done.

 

BIEBER VS. RYAN

Both Shane Bieber and Joe Ryan are ace-quality pitchers. Each has put their teams in a position to win the vast majority of the time. Cleveland’s 1-4 road record when Bieber starts is really just negative serendipity. No team’s bullpen is bulletproof.
When Shane exited the games, Cleveland was ahead in 2 games and tied in the other 3. When Joe Ryan left the game, Minnesota was ahead in 4 games and behind in 1. Cleveland’s bullpen coughed up a lead in 1 game and lost the 3 games that were tied; Minnesota’s bullpen coughed up a lead in the White Sox game.

CONCLUSION

Baseball is a team sport. Nothing says that better than analyzing the road pitching performances of Shane Bieber and Joe Ryan. Fans expect Cleveland to win when Bieber is pitching, and Minnesota fans expect to win when Ryan is pitching. Unfortunately, baseball is a lot like life. Our expectations are met most of the time, but we only remember when they aren’t met.

Be patient, Guardians fans. Enjoy the game. It could be worse – you could be living in the East Bay area with the worst team in MLB that, oh by the way, is moving to Las Vegas.