College Football Playoff Projections

On the Bubble:

5. Alabama 7-1
Alabama is by far the most impressive of the one loss teams. Alabama has beat Wisconsin to go along with road victories against then top ten Georgia and Texas A&M. All of those wins were by at least 18 points too. The lone blemish on their resume is a 43-37 loss to Ole Miss. Ole Miss isn’t as bad of a loss as some other teams have as the Rebels lost to Florida and Memphis and did roll over Texas A&M the other week. They get to face LSU to see if they can become the top one loss team in the SEC but for right now they are just on the outside looking in.

6. Baylor 7-0
Despite being second in both polls I have them sixth on my list. There are two main reasons for that. First they don’t have a quality win yet this year. The best one they can put on their resume is a 63-35 victory over a 5-4 (2-4 Big 12) Texas Tech team. However they have convincingly won every game and put up 48 in every game including over 60 in five. However the other reason I have them so low is they just lost QB Seth Russell for the year with a neck injury. We do not know if the backup QB will sink or swim just yet. I think there are other teams more deserving at the moment.

7. Notre Dame 7-1
Notre Dame is also right up there among one loss teams that can contend for the playoffs. Unlike most of these other teams, they don’t have a conference championship game that can help bolster their resume that final week. They also have only one quality opponent remaining going to Stanford the final week of the season. Their one loss on the year was to my number two ranked Clemson. They also have victories over a then 14th ranked Georgia Tech which has diminished greatly in value, as well as USC and on the road at Temple. They need to finish strong to really give themselves a chance but if some of the teams ahead of them falter than they might be able to squeak in.

8. Michigan State 8-0
I have two one loss teams ahead of Michigan State. In all honesty Michigan State shouldn’t be undefeated and therefore wouldn’t make this last spot on my list. However by some grace of God they are and therefore still need to be considered. Their two major victories this year have both lost traction. Oregon is in a down year after being considered a highly ranked team early and the Michigan victory lost credibility in the way in which they won. They still have a really good QB in Connor Cook though. I’m giving them the slight edge over Iowa for my final spot in the watch list here for being undefeated with those two victories.

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