Cleveland Browns’ AFC North Odds

The Cleveland Browns have trimmed their roster down to 53 as the 2022-2023 NFL season draws closer. Season-long betting odds are unlikely to swing much over the next week (unless there’s a key injury to a top player or surprise trade) so let’s see where some of the top sportsbooks view Cleveland among the AFC North.

2022 AFC North Betting Odds

Below are the odds for the winner of the AFC North from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM Sportsbook Ohio.

 

	Baltimore	Cincinnati	Cleveland	Pittsburgh
DraftKings	+140	+170	+380	+1000
FanDuel	+145	+170	+370	+950
BetMGM	+145	+175	+375	+900

 

It’s clear that sportsbooks see the AFC North as a two-team race between the Ravens and Bengals, with the Browns lagging behind following the Deshaun Watson suspension.

We can use Cleveland’s odds and convert them into an implied probability. BetMGM’s odds split the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel, and at +375 equals a 21% probability for the Browns to win the AFC North.

The Browns’ Odds Rest in Watson’s Hands

When NFL divisional markets initially opened in late February, the Bengals were the betting favorites in the AFC North. Everything changed, however, when the Browns announced the Watson trade. That move took Cleveland from the third-longest odds at +340 to betting AFC North betting favorites immediately. The Browns stayed ahead of the pack for about three months until the speculations about Watson’s suspension started popping up.

Cleveland fell back behind Baltimore and Cincinnati to about +275 until the NFL successfully appealed Watson’s six-game suspension, which brings us to where the Browns are today.

Cleveland Browns 2022 Season Outlook

Very few sportsbooks offered a Browns win total bet prior to the suspension announcement. Those who did set the line at 9.5. Interestingly, the additional five games tacked on from the appeal only dropped Cleveland’s 2022 win total by 1 win to 8.5. For reference, DraftKings has the Bengals at 10, Ravens at 9.5, and Steelers at 7.5.

One of the talking points that is seemingly going overlooked with the extended Watson suspension is he went from missing one AFC North game to three. The three divisional games without Watson will be Week 3 versus Pittsburgh, Week 7 at Baltimore, and Week 8 versus Cincinnati. Working in the Browns’ favor is the fact that two of the three games Watson will miss are home games.

The three games after Watson’s suspension will be Week 14 at Cincinnati, Week 15 versus Baltimore, and Week 18 at Pittsburgh.

The Browns will need to take advantage of the weak schedule they have to open the year if they are to keep pace with the rest of the AFC North, which includes the Week 3 home matchup with the Steelers.

Browns’ AFC Trends Under Kevin Stefanski

Cleveland has gone 3-3 in their divisional games in both seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski. This is why despite finishing 11-5 in the 2020-2021 season, the Browns were third in the division.

From a betting standpoint, the Browns are an abysmal 1-11 against the spread in divisional games under Stefanski.

All things considered, perhaps it’s a good thing Ohio bettors will only have one divisional game to wager on this season once the state launches legal sports betting at the beginning of 2023.