Browns vs Colts Preview

Photo via Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Sunday, October 15, 2023, around 4:25 pm, The San Francisco 49ers 3rd round rookie kicker, Jake Moody out of Michigan, is running onto the field to kick what would be the game winning field goal, at Cleveland Browns Stadium. The score is 19-17 in the Browns favor, and the 49ers rookie goes onto the field, in hopes of stealing one for his team, after what was not only their worst game of the 2023 season, but one of their worst games in recent memory.

Before their Shockingly poor performance, the Niners started the game like they always do, fantastic. They began the game with a 5 play, 85-yard drive, which ended them up on the Browns 16-yard line. On the ensuing down, Brock Purdy throws a screen pass to none other, then superstar running back Christian McCaffrey, and with lead blockers out front, he seemingly goes untouched into the endzone, and gave the Niners a 7-point lead ,in just 3 minutes into the ball game. McCaffrey not only handed the Niners the early lead, but he continued his historic streak of 16 straight regular season games with a touchdown, and his record lived to see another week After this well executed, perfectly orchestrated opening drive, the 49ers thought they had set the tone, and foreshadowed what the rest of the game would look like for this incredible offense, it however, did not.

Over the next 35 plays, the Niners had just 80 total yards of offense, and 3 total points. An obvious factor in this offensive collapse was what a usual fall day in Ohio usually looks like, A barely 60-degree day, with pouring rain, and winds that were over 20 mph. This weather clearly affected quarterbacks for both teams, as they both struggled to control their passes, and get their desired grip on the ball. In one instance Early into the second quarter, Purdy dropped back to pass, and as he tried to throw it, the ball completely slipped out of his hands, and he had to dive on the ball to avoid a turnover.

Though the weather absolutely played a factor, it was not the main reason this 49ers offense looked like a shell of itself, The reason for their unexpected disappearance was the incredible Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns defense was responsible for Brock Purdy’s worst game he has ever played start to finish in the NFL. Holding him to his career worst 12/27 passing and 125 yards, and a 44% completion rating, which is well below his NFL leading completion percentage average of 72.1%.

The Browns not only slowed down and stopped the Niners incredible passing attack, but also shut down what has always been an incredible Niners rushing attack. The Niners as a team had just 108 total rushing yards for the game, their worst rushing performance of the year, and saw their running back Christian McCaffrey through 3 quarters, have just 11 carries for 43 total yards, and just 3.9 yards per carry. The Browns defense had the Niners in a choke hold for the majority of the game and limited the Niners to just 3 of 12 on third downs, and 45% of the 49er’s total yards on Sunday came via penalty.

As the Browns defense performed, The Browns and Stefanski squeezed out what felt like the best possible offensive output, against one of the best defenses in football, with third string quarterback PJ Walker. The Browns put up 19 points, 12 of which being field goals, and outscored more than 4 of the other 6 opponents the Niners faced this year. The Browns offense was once again incredibly lucky to have their defense, as it was the main reason they were in the game. Though after the Browns decent offensive output, and incredible defensive day.

The Niners still had a chance with 1:40 seconds remaining, to drive down the field, and get into field goal range to win the game, and they did just that. After 2 incomplete passes to start the drive, Niners WR Jauan Jennings drew a pass interference call on Browns corner Martin Emerson on third down, which resulted in a spot foul, and a new set of downs. The following play was one that Brock Purdy was looking for all game, a 5 yard out route to Brandon Aiyuk, which Aiyuk then cut up the field, and turned it into a 25-yard gain. The following plays were successful ones, as another Aiyuk reception for 8 yards, and a Jauan Jennings completion for nine, in a matter of seconds, had put the Niners in Field Goal range.

The Niners had not only crossed mid field, but had given their rookie kicker, great field position, to kick a very reasonable and makeable 41-yard Field Goal to win the game. The Browns and their fans had seen this heartbreaking story play out way too many times before,  as the opposing team in the closing seconds of the game, steals what feels like should be a win that was meant for the Browns, but was ripped out of our hands in the final seconds. Going into the kick, Moody had a history of success to start his young NFL career. Moody was 2-2 in kicks from 40-49 yards, and was 1-2 of kicks over 50+, his only missed field goal of his career, came in the first quarter of the game, a 54-yard field goal which 6:55 left to go, a kicked that he hooked left, and is a miss that foreshadowed what was to come.

With 9 seconds left on the clock, Moody takes the field, hoping to continue to add to his early rookie success to start the season. The ball is hiked, and is caught and lined up by placeholder Mitch Wishnowsky, As Jake Moody kicks it, the entire stadium holds their breath, the ball is tracking to the right side of the goal post, but continues to drift, the kick in its last seconds, continues to drift right, and the kick is up……..and too far right, no good. The Browns stadium erupted, and every Browns player and fan across the world that was watching the game gave their loved ones a hug, and pure bliss and joy ensued, wherever they were. The Browns felt as if luck had finally struck their side, and after Browns fans watched so many of these games that lead to unfortunate endings, the Browns finally witnessed a happy one.

As the Browns completed the biggest upset of the NFL season and shocked the entire football world. This win felt more important than just another win into the win column but is a win that Coach Stefanski  described as one that “feels like you stack a couple more on” and is a win  that builds the momentum the Browns were desperately looking for to start the season. It was an incredible win, and a game that will be remembered for most fans, for the rest of our lives. Though the season doesn’t end there, and you don’t get super bowl rings for wins in week 6, and if you have higher aspirations of a Franchise, it is important to not get hung up on this and continue to progress and build throughout the season. Though this game was a very important one, and it gives the Browns a big boost heading into a road trip, as the Browns get ready to take on a Colts team that looks much different than the one Fans saw just weeks ago.

The Browns will be playing a Colts team that desperately wishes they had the personnel they had just weeks ago, After a slew of unfortunate injuries, and a certain impact player shocking suspension, the Colts are a much weaker and less dynamic team, then they were just days ago. To start, first round quarterback Anthony Richardson, who started his Rookie Campaign on an excellent note, being responsible for 7 total touchdowns in just four weeks, (3 passing and 4 rushing), will not play Sunday against the Browns, after suffering an AC joint injury week 5 against the Tennessee Titans.

Not only will Richardson be out Sunday, but Richardson has sadly elected to have season ending surgery and will end his 2023 season. So, Lining up under center on Sunday, and the foreseeable future, will be former Jacksonville Jaguars 6th round pick, Gardner Minshew. The League has not treated Minshew so nicely, after his 2019 campaign which got him stardom and publicity. Through 12 games of the 2019 season, Minshew had a 6-6 record, and threw for over 3,000 yards, and 21 touchdowns. His streak of solid QB play did not continue for long after the 2019 season.

After winning his first game of the 2020 season for the Jags, the Jags went on to lose 15 games in a row, and Minshew had a 1-8 record that season. Minshew is now 3-11 as a starter since the 2019 season,  and averages just 159 yards per game, and a 64.3% completion percentage, which is bottom half in the current quarterback standings for completion percentage.

Though Minshew is very well capable of stealing one from you, as seen just a couple of weeks ago, when the Colts upset the Baltimore Ravens in Overtime in a week 3 thriller, and was a game Minshew threw for 227 yards, and a touchdown. Minshew did not take over the game, but did just enough to keep the Colts around, and that game describes Minshew’s Career currently as it stands. With good coaching and good defensive play, Minshew is good enough to keep you around, as we saw in the Ravens game, and the Titans game when Richardson got hurt midway through the second quarter.

Though without a doubt the Colts will miss their hopeful savior Anthony Richardson and will also miss other big losses for the Colts this week as well. Other big losses for the Colts are Colts Starting DT Grover Stewart. Stewart will be out Sunday vs the Browns, who earlier this week the NFL announced that Stewart would be suspended 6 games for violating the NFLs Ped Policy. Stewart is 5th among Defensive Tackles in solo tackles and is rated by Pro football focus as one of the best Defensive Tackles in Football this year.

Another thing to keep an eye on is Colts starting right tackle Braden Smith did not practice all week for the Colts with a hip injury and is trending to being out for Indy on Sunday. These slew of injuries make the Colts far less dangerous and intimidating then they were before, and these big-time losses for this unit could lead to the Browns offenses and defenses exposing these units, if they play it correctly.

For the Browns, everything is trending up for them this week health wise, After the incredible win on Sunday, the browns are getting healthier, As quarterback Deshaun Watson was seen on the practice field Thursday and Friday for the Browns for the first time in 3 weeks, and took all of the first team reps the past couple of days, he is questionable heading into Sunday’s game.

Browns longtime left guard Joel Bitonio was also seen on the practice field Friday, and is not listed on the Injury report currently, but could be ready to suit up on Sunday after a week off. Browns LB Sione Takitaki is out with a Hamstring injury this week, and Greg Newsome is questionable with a hamstring injury, but should be ready to go. Despite those 3 questionable players, and one player out, the browns for the most part are very healthy right now, and 10 of the 11 starters for the incredible defense will be there Sunday, and the defense could get a big boost on the other side of the ball, if Watson and Bitonio are ready to suit up.

No matter who plays quarterback for the Browns on Sunday, and what players are able to suit up for the Browns, this is a game that feels like one that absolutely favors the Browns. The Browns are riding high right now, and are going into the game with more momentum then maybe any other team in football has right now. The Colts, however, cannot say the same. The Colts are coming off of a 17-point loss, to division rival Jacksonville Jaguars, and are still adjusting to the big-time loss of their Star Rookie Quarterback.

The Browns’ most important thing to do on Sunday is two things, One, continue to play their historically great defense as they have shown through 5 games. There should be no problem in slowing down a Gardner Minshew lead Offense, and a rushing attack led by the fresh legs of Jonathan Taylor, who has yet to have over 20 yards rushing in a game yet and looks as if he is still trying to get warmed up, after sitting out the first 4 weeks of the year. Minshew, through two games, is struggling with what the Browns seem to be doing some of their best right now, and that is applying pressure.

Through two weeks Minshew leads the league in turnover worth plays under pressure, with 12.7% of his throws under pressure leading to this, the next closest is Jordan Love, with 5.3% per Pro Football Focus, and just last week the Browns pressured Purdy on more than 50% of his drop backs. The Browns incredible Defense line should be able to apply pressure to Minshew, and hopefully could win the battle against a strong Indianapolis Colts offensive line, which ranks as the 6th best in football, and is led by all pro LG Quenton Nelson.

The Browns, no matter what O line they are going up against, should still be able to perform at a high level on Sunday, as they just got done exposing another great offensive line, just last week. This is a unit through 5 games, Not only are in the top 5 in practically every metric but have been one of the best defenses we have seen in football, in decades. The Browns defense has allowed just 1,002 yards, this is the fewest of any team through 5 games in over 50 years. The Browns defense is also allowing just 200 yards per game this year, which beats the second-best team by 60 whole yards, the Baltimore Ravens.

The Browns are allowing the least amount of first downs per game with 10, fewest passing yards per game (121.4), third fewest rushing yards per game (79.0) , fifth fewest points per game (15.4) and so many more categories they lead in. The defense alone should be the reason you are able to beat the Colts on Sunday, and you should be able to limit a career backup quarterback to very limited yards of total offense. Though the X factor on Sunday is IF you can just get component offensive output. If the Browns offense can put up similar yards and points, as they did against the 49ers on Sunday, there should be no reason they don’t win this game and have control for a large majority of the game.

The Browns are playing against a poor Colts defensive unit thus far. The Colts are allowing the 6th most yards per game so far (357.2), the 9th most passing yards (243.7) , the 13th most rushing yards (113.5) and the 8th most ppg with 25.3 ppg. If the Browns can expose a poor Colts defense, and continue to play extremely well on defense, they should be able to take over this game, against a thin Colts team. The Browns are willing to make this a low scoring affair on Sunday if Watson is out, and the Browns will have no problem getting into a defensive showdown if it means winning on Sunday.

For the Colts, if Shane Steichen can squeeze out as much offensive productivity out of Minshew, and against this browns defense, it can be interesting, and the Colts have to hope the Browns continue to have turnover troubles, and if they can somehow expose this browns defense, which looks so far to be an impossible task, they will have a shot, but this will be the colts biggest battle yet, as they look to try to advance to 4-3 on the season, and salvage whatever season they have left with Gardner Minshew. The browns on the other hand, look to advance to 4-2, and would be one of their best starts through 6 games in the past decade.