The next argument reading this would be then why wouldn’t Kansas City absolutely move him right now? The first reason is for the same exact reason the Browns would trade for him. Kansas City traded up to get Pat Mahomes to be their franchise QB last year.
Mahomes had a year to sit and learn from Alex Smith and not rush him into starting right away. As the new bargaining agreement changed the outrageous prices rookie players were getting I think it started to shift the demand away from having to start first round picks right away because of what they were getting paid. That along with some stunted growths of some of those who started immediately has seemed to me to be a driving force back into sitting QBs their first year. Aaron Rodgers was the big name that sat behind a QB for a while.
Since Rodgers came out the only QBs that have really sat almost all of their rookie year have been Jay Cutler, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, and Pat Mahomes. Three of those names since 2006 have come since 2014. While sitting has not translated to success every teams situation is different. The Chiefs would be eager to see what they have in Mahomes and Smith being there with him for this whole season will probably make him a better QB than if he was in a situation like Cleveland this year.
The second reason for the Chiefs not trading him is Smith still gives them a shot to win. Winning is probably priority number one to football fans and organizations. Smith has proven he gives you a good chance with that. Turning it over to Mahomes would be a roll of the dice. The AFC is the weaker of the two conferences and on paper I would say the Chiefs going into free agency are probably the third best team in the AFC.
The two teams ahead of them Pittsburgh and New England have a QB that is older than Smith. It is only a matter of time as well before Big Ben and Brady start to hit their wall and if an injury were to occur the only major hurdle for the Chiefs getting to a Super Bowl may be beating the the other team. With Kareem Hunt, Travis Kielce, and Tyreek Hill now involved as playmakers in the offense along with that offensive line and defense they would have a realistic shot at winning the AFC.
Adding a pass rusher in the draft should be among their priorities to make them even better. With a good shot at winning they should not look into forcing Alex Smith out for Mahomes but if the offer is right they can certainly take that shot instead of getting nothing in return if they should choose.
Getting back to the Browns, at 1-31 the last two seasons they are a long ways away from the postseason. With an extension seemingly unlikely why on Earth would you do this trade if you are John Dorsey? I probably wouldn’t entertain the idea. If it were to cost you a fourth round pick absolutely.
You can give him a role player with all your extra draft picks to have him come in for one year get some wins, appease the fan base, and teach not only your drafted QB but Kizer as well without having them play. But if you want to get conservative and say a second round pick the hesitation should be immediate. The Chiefs are not going to ask for the Eagles second round pick, it is going to be for the Browns or Texans one.
Cleveland won’t make the playoffs so why give up a second round for a one year rental? That would mean the Browns pretty much paid 33 million to have Alex Smith mentor the first overall pick since you have his 17 million dollar contract and the 16 million you spent on the Texans pick to pay Osweiler not to play for you go to Kansas City for Smith. That is the definition of ludicrous. How many last place teams in the NBA do you see give up draft picks for a guy on a one year deal? You don’t.
The playoff teams trying to win it all do. Let’s play the scenario game of recent Browns draft picks. The same range where this pick would be you can have Alex Smith for one year or Joel Bitonio, Nate Orchard, Emmanuel Ogbah, or David Njoku for four years. Sure Orchard has been a bust but that is probably the only one in that group you would take Alex Smith over.
That means there is a 25% chance you are getting the better end of the deal for a second round pick and as I said it is more than likely going to cost more than that bringing your percentage below a 25% chance this trade is successful. It just doesn’t make sense.
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