So once again we come to the crossroads of what will it take to get Alex Smith? I would keep it the same cost of acquisition if I am Kansas City and hold tight to two second round picks. Here is why. In his five season with Kansas City he has thrown for at least 3,250 yards in every season with a combined 111-35 TD:INT ratio. To help put that into perspective Deshone Kizer had two more interceptions this season than Alex Smith had in his last three regular seasons combined.
Smith only seemed to get better as time went on in Kansas City too. His QBR went from the 12th in 2015 to 10th in 2016 to 8th in 2017. If you combine the QBR rankings for QBs over that time period, his actually ranks higher than Kirk Cousins who is thought to be the top free agent QB this offseason that can pull in a 25+ million dollar a year deal. Alex threw a career high 26 TDs and career low 5 INTs in 2017.
His impact goes beyond just the stats as the Chiefs won a combined nine games the two seasons before he got there including a franchise tying low of two games in 2012. After his arrival the Chiefs have won 11, 9, 11, 12, and 10 game appropriately. Combining all those factors and the fact that he is just 34 he should fetch more than a second round pick. Remember Drew Brees is 38, Tom Brady 40, Philip Rivers 36, and Ben Roethlisberger 35 so there are still elite level QBs in his age group.
At this point I think the argument can be strongly made that the value of Alex Smith’s worth is not worth it for the Browns. It just doesn’t make sense. What it makes sense for is a team like Jacksonville, Minnesota, Arizona, Buffalo, potentially Washington that needs that little extra push at QB.
They are all playoff caliber teams as they stand right now but an improvement at QB may get them over their personal hump. A couple of second round picks to field a competitive team while keeping Alex Smith as a starter for potentially more than one year makes sense.
Where Alex Smith doesn’t make sense is wasting his talent as a bridge. He is not in the Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick type decline in the NFL where he’s a borderline starter. Alex Smith is a top ten QB. As a competitor I don’t think he would sign an extension with the Browns knowing a first overall pick is waiting to take his job and be stuck behind him just as I would expect him to not sign an extension with Kansas City with Pat Mahomes there.
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