The Cincinnati Bengals are one win away from making back-to-back Super Bowl appearances for the first time in franchise history. If that’s not exciting enough, new BetMGM Ohio users can use our exclusive BetMGM Ohio bonus code SHARP for a first bet offer worth up to $1,000.
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AFC Championship Odds: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC Championship will put a bow on conference championship weekend as the final game on Sunday, Jan. 29. The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on CBS.
Here are the AFC Championship odds for Bengals-Chiefs as of Jan. 27.
Point Spread: Kansas City -1.5
Moneylines: KC (-120) | CIN (+100)
Point Total: 48
The line movement in this game has been wild to watch. When the AFC Championship odds first opened, Kansas City was favored by as many as three points on some Ohio online sportsbooks. Then, due to the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury, the spread swung all the way to Cincinnati -2.5. With video circulating of Mahomes without a walking boot and jogging at practice, however, Kansas City is favored once again.
Bengals-Chiefs Best Bets
Here are some of my favorite bets for the Bengals-Chiefs AFC Championship game.
Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 passing yards
It never feels good betting against Patrick Mahomes, but we have some history and stats on our side with this particular prop bet.
In Mahomes’ four career games against the Bengals, he’s gone over this prop total just once, and that was with Andy Dalton under center. In their three games in 2022, Mahomes is averaging just over 252 passing yards per game. Against teams Mahomes has faced more than once, this would rank as his second-lowest average.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, has allowed just four quarterbacks to throw for 286 or more yards. They’ve also allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league and are tied for the seventh-fewest adjusted yards per attempt. Cincinnati has given up the sixth-highest yards per completion at 11.6, but Mahomes’ 12.1 yards per completion is the second-lowest of his career and the Chiefs’ 7.2 average depth of target is tied for the 10th-lowest in the league.
Samaje Perine Over 38.5 rushing and receiving yards
While the Chiefs’ total rushing yards allowed during the regular season look good on paper, that’s largely due to the fact they faced the seventh-fewest rush attempts. Kansas City allowed 4.4 yards per carry (15th) and rank 15th in rush DVOA. Against the Jaguars last week, the Chiefs gave up nearly 7.6 yards per carry, allowing 144 yards on just 19 carries.
When it comes to the passing game, the Chiefs allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to running backs.
Samaje Perine’s involvement in the offense has been elevated ever since Joe Mixon missed two games due to a concussion in Weeks 12 and 13. In the weeks prior to this, Perine’s highest snap percentage was 36%. From Weeks 14 and on, Perine hasn’t played less than 38% of the offensive snaps.
Against Buffalo, Perine played 44% of the snaps and put up 64 total yards on 12 touches. He’s likely to stay just as involved against the Chiefs because of his blocking ability. With offensive linemen Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams ruled out, Perine should see the field plenty.
You can get a more favorable line on this at PointsBet (35.5) and FanDuel (36.5), displaying the importance of line shopping anytime you’re placing a bet.
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