A Conundrum Named Amed Rosario

Photo by Anna Haberstro

After a very successful season, our Cleveland MLB Franchise has a potential off-season decision to be made on shortstop Amed Rosario. It is a complex decision, with interesting aspects to be factored in.

Rosario was deemed a “throw-in” in the Francisco Lindor trade to the Mets. Andres Gimenez was the real prize in the deal. But Amed has morphed into a major contributor after two seasons in Cleveland. He has become a fan favorite, as we watched him blaze on the base paths at Progressive Field.

 

INTANGIBLES

Rosario, who turns 27 on November 20th, has some noteworthy intangibles. Those intangibles, and how he goes about playing the game of baseball, has made him a role model and leader among his teammates. So much so that star teammate Jose Ramirez has publicly lobbied Cleveland Guardian Executives to sign him to a multi-year contract.

Younger Latino teammates Gimenez, Gonzalez, Arias, Clase, and De Los Santos all look up to Rosario, and follow his professional work ethic. You can see the positive chemistry on the field. Although Ramirez is more talented, both he and Amed are considered co-leaders of the Guardians.

Amed plays the game extremely hard, and with great enthusiasm. You would be hard pressed to find another MLB player that runs harder to first base. The proof is that Rosario led the AL in infield hits this season, and he also ran out of some potential double plays with that same all-out hustle.

Manager Tito Francona loves Amed and had a difficult time sitting him down for rest.  Rosario played in 153 of the 162 regular season games (94%) and pestered Francona to play in the 9 games he sat out. He has proven to remain injury free over his last 5 MLB seasons. That availability to play every day is a critical trait that many other MLB players can only wish for.

PRODUCTIVITY

In two Cleveland seasons, Rosario has shown the consistency to hit for a .283 batting average, and 11 home runs in both seasons, while increasing his RBIs from 57 in 2021, to 71 this season. He also led MLB with 9 triples, and his 180 hits placed him 5th overall in MLB.

Rosario seemed to be in the middle of most run scoring rallies, and his 86 runs scored placed him right behind Ramirez and Steven Kwan. More importantly, Jose would not have had his 126 RBI season if Amed was not doing his job hitting directly in front of Jose.  The top of the 2022 lineup was the key to the Guardians scoring enough runs to win 92 games. Amed Rosario was in the midst of that, and his few hitting slumps were relatively short lived.

The ability to run the bases well and go from 1st to 3rd or home and score, is a Rosario fan loving specialty. Amed stole 18 bases, while being caught only 4 times. His speed and hustle helped create opponent errors, both mental and physical. Fielders knew that they had to move quicker and throw accurately with the pressure Rosario supplied.

Watching the speed of Straw, Kwan, Rosario, and Ramirez rattle pitchers was pure joy for fans all season long. Many called it old school baseball.

Rosario does not walk much. His 25 bases on balls and his 111 strikeouts hurts his OBS. His OBP at .312 is low, and an area to improve on.

His slugging percentage of .403 is also low, although Rosario occasionally flashes some surprising power. Amed hit a 450-foot HR to dead center versus Arizona on August 3rd., prompting Francona to quip: “Where he hit the ball, that was big boy territory there. Amed is so steady at a high level.”

FIELDING

Rosario’s 134 completed games at SS placed him tied for 7th place in MLB in 2022. He had 12 errors and a fielding percentage of .977. His defensive chances of 522 (putouts plus assists plus errors) was ranked 12th, and his 152 putouts ranked him 16th. 358 total assists ranked 7th.

Not many MLB shortstops have the fielding talent of Rosario’s shortstop predecessor Lindor, so that comparison is somewhat unfair. It is fair to state that Rosario has improved his fielding over the past 2 seasons and should continue to do so. He is a competent MLB shortstop, and of the top 20 MLB shortstops in 2022 innings played, Rosario ranked 12th in range factor per game:  putouts + assists / games played. That defines competence and placed him ahead of the following top 20 shortstops:  Perdomo, Swanson, Iglesias, J.P. Crawford, Kim, Bichette, Turner, and Correa.

Rosario is a relentless worker and is very coachable. The talk of having him experiment in the outfield, as in 2021, ended in spring training. His double play work with Gimenez improved, and it was easy to see his aggressiveness in the field grow as the season wore on.

AGE

Some critics of Rosario point to his age, and I am not sure why.

Rosario is less than 3 years older than Gimenez, 2 years older than Owen Miller, and 4+ years older than Arias. His best years should be coming up between the age of 27 to 32.

Furthermore, of the top 20 MLB shortstops, as defined by 2022 completed games, Rosario is the 7th youngest. It is unjust to view him as old in any baseball sense.

 

CONTRACT SALARY

Rosario earned $4.95 million in 2022, and is again arbitration eligible for 2023, with an anticipated salary estimate of $9.12 million. He becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

Rosario has value. The Front Office has to decide whether to trade him this off-season or sign him for next season. He could then be either traded before the mid-season deadline next summer or have him play out the season and become a free agent. In that case, the team would lose him for nothing, and it is hard to believe that would happen.

Since he is beloved as a teammate, especially by Ramirez, the front office knows his teammates want to continue to play and win with Rosario. The coaching staff feels he is a valuable asset. That puts some additional pressure on management to sign Rosario to a new 3-to-4-year contract, at somewhere in the range of $10 to $12 million per year.

 

OTHER SS OPTIONS

Trading Rosario and moving Gimenez to SS is one option. It would certainly save some money, something that owner Dolan has shown a fondness for, as fans know quite well.

Gimenez is a favorite to win a gold glove for his superb fielding work at 2nd base. An argument can be made to keep Gimenez at 2nd, and don’t interrupt what is working so well defensively. The SS position is no longer as greatly valued over 2nd base like it once was, and the new rule of keeping the 2nd baseman on the infield will place a greater need for both fielding expertise and range in 2023.

Top minor league prospects Brayon Rocchio and Angel Martinez offer potential at both SS and 2nd base. They are aged 21 and 20.  They are not proven MLB hitters. The ability to productively hit MLB pitching often takes a few trips back and forth from the minors to MLB. Many prospects don’t succeed. It is tough to accurately predict whether prospects can successfully hit MLB pitching.

Infielders Chang, Clement, Freeman, and Miller got some MLB at-bats for the Guardians over the last two seasons. All four had hitting issues, and Chang and Clement got DFA’d.

The jury is still out on whether Gabriel Arias can consistently hit MLB pitching, as his at bats were very limited. He did commit 5 errors, primarily at 2nd and 3rd base.

Counting on a prospect to duplicate Rosario’s offensive production is very risky. Hitting .283 with 71 RBI’s and 86 runs scored is a reasonable expectation for Amed in 2023. At age 27, there is a decent chance that his power numbers might increase some.

THE 2023 SEASON AND ROSARIO

A trade including Rosario is more likely than signing him to a multi-year contract. The 2023 MLB minimum salary of $720,000 would offer a savings of $9 million to the Guardians over what arbitration would yield for Rosario. Perhaps the club will elect to sign him for just 2023, and if one of the younger prospects seems ready, a summer trade would be executed.

The Front Office has not let free agents play out their final contract year, and then walk away. Rosario won’t be changing that policy.

It is not known whether pressure to sign Rosario from Ramirez would factor in much, along with positive input from the coaching staff. Recent payroll history would lead most fans to think a 3-year contract worth $35 million is out of the question.

When you analyze this past season, the immediate Guardian needs are a better hitting catcher, 1st baseman, and another starting pitcher. The play of Rosario helped win games, and we don’t need to move on from him.

I hope I am wrong, and Dolan and the front office decide to stretch out the budget to include Amed Rosario playing through the 2025 season. It comes down to money, and whether the Front Office feels Rosario is worth $9/10 million in 2023, and beyond.

A prospect will not duplicate the totality of what Rosario did for the team. If the goal is getting to the World Series, saving money has to become secondary. Windows to win and succeed can open and close quickly in MLB.

Amed Rosario is a kid that shows up for work every day, truly loves his job, and contributes in multiple ways.  The joy that he plays with rubs off in a positive way to each of his teammates. His baseball intrinsic value is fully on display, and it should be paid for.

I want to continue to watch Rosario clapping hard at 3rd base after hitting a triple, or after running from 1st base after a Ramirez single. And that Amed Rosario big smile, while clapping, is fun to view.