2023 Season in Review: Guardians vs. Twins

With the season about 2/3^rd’s complete, as predicted the AL Central race has boiled down to Cleveland and Minnesota. Chicago has raised the red flag; Detroit has hung around, but is not a serious contender (yet), and Kansas City sweeps Minnesota in what can only be defined as “too little, too late” for the Royals and a lost opportunity for the Twins.

Let’s look at the numbers to see how each team got to where they are (basically tied). There are several team metrics I use for this, as follows:

The first metric is team records after 6 innings compared to actual record. After 6 innings, Cleveland is 48-43-15; Minnesota is 48-47-12. A 2-game advantage for the Guardians. Then why are the Guardians a half-game back? It’s what happens after the 6^th inning. Cleveland, with a 53-53 record, lost 2.5 games in the standings by underperforming after the 6^th inning. Minnesota, with a 54-53 record, gained 0.5 games in the standings.

The second metric is records when scoring first. Teams scoring the first run of the game win 67% of the time. Cleveland wins 61.8% of the time when scoring first; Minnesota wins 64.7% of the time when scoring first. Each team is underperforming, but Minnesota’s 33-18 record is 1 game better than Cleveland’s 34-21 record. A corollary of this is reviewing how games each team won when scoring last vs. losing when scoring first. The Twins are +3 (21-18); the Guardians are -2 (19-21). This results in a 2.5 game deficit for Cleveland.

The third metric is scoring 5 or more runs in a game. Since the average home team scores 5 runs and the average road team scores 4 runs per game, I thought it would be more interesting to review this to see how well each team plays when scoring runs, or (in the case of both teams) when NOT scoring runs. To be sure, most games involve less than 5 runs scored (57%) than 5 or more runs scored (43%). The Guardians record when scoring 5 or more runs is 31-8 (.795); Minnesota’s record is 37-8 (.822). Overall, MLB teams win 78.6% of games when scoring 5 or more runs. Where Cleveland has an advantage is record when scoring 4 runs or less. The Guardians record in those situations is 22-45 (.328); the Twins record is 17-45 (.274). Like when scoring first, reviewing teams winning when scoring less than 5 runs vs. losing when scoring 5 runs or more is revealing. Cleveland is 22-8 (+14), Minnesota is 17-8 (+9), resulting in a 2.5 game advantage for the Guardians.

Taking the metrics together, this is what we end up with:

After 6 innings vs. Actual: Minnesota +3.0 

Scoring First: Minnesota +1.0

Losing When Scoring First vs. Winning When Not Scoring First: Minnesota +2.5

Scoring 5 or more Runs: Minnesota +3.0

Losing When Scoring 5+ Runs vs. Winning When Scoring 4 or Fewer Runs: Cleveland +2.5

Since the Guardians are only a half-game being the Twins, how can Minnesota have a +7.0-game advantage in the metrics? Well, it really boils down to what games are excluded from the metrics. In games where the team that is ahead after 6 wins the game; in games where each team scored 5 or more runs or 4 or less runs, Cleveland is +6.5 games over Minnesota. The result is the Twins with the ½ game lead in the AL Central.

My next post will be on previewing the games the last third of the season. I honestly believe the AL Central will go right down to the wire.